What makes Nick Chubb so explosive outside the red zone and so inefficient inside it?
Here is a look at yards per carry, both outside the red zone and inside the red zone, for some of the top tier running backs, including Chubb, in 2019.
*Multiplier is the number of yards a player averages per carry outside the red zone for every one yard inside the red zone.
| Running Back | YPC outside RZ | YPC in RZ | Multiplier |
| Fournette | 4.93 | 1.35 | 3.65 |
| Chubb | 5.69 | 1.64 | 3.47 |
| CMC | 5.34 | 2.65 | 2.02 |
| Barkley | 4.92 | 2.64 | 1.86 |
| Cook | 4.93 | 2.65 | 1.86 |
| Mixon | 4.38 | 2.38 | 1.84 |
| Elliott | 4.94 | 2.75 | 1.80 |
| Ingram | 5.48 | 3.25 | 1.69 |
| Jacobs | 5.07 | 3.20 | 1.58 |
| Henry | 5.35 | 3.43 | 1.56 |
| Gurley | 4.17 | 2.73 | 1.53 |
| A Jones | 4.77 | 3.52 | 1.36 |
| Kamara | 4.85 | 3.62 | 1.34 |
| Chubb 2018 | 5.66 | 2.19 | 2.58 |
Chubb has averaged nearly 5.7 ypc outside the red zone in each of the past 2 seasons, a higher rate than any other top running back but has failed to reach anywhere near the level of elite runners inside the red zone. He was particularly poor in goal-to-go situations in 2019 where he had 10 yards on 28 rushes.
Chubb also had a very low TD % Rate in the red zone (RZ TDs/RZ Rushes) in 2019 compared to other top running backs.
| Running Back | RZ TD Rate |
| A Jones | 42.4% |
| Henry | 31.0% |
| Cook | 27.9% |
| Ingram | 25.0% |
| Gurley | 23.5% |
| CMC | 20.4% |
| Elliott | 18.6% |
| Jacobs | 17.1% |
| Kamara | 15.4% |
| Mixon | 12.5% |
| Chubb | 12.0% |
| Barkley | 10.7% |
| Fournette | 7.0% |
Aside from inefficiencies in yards per carry and touchdown rate in the red zone, Chubb’s overall successful run rate (45%) ranked 37th in the NFL, startling for someone who averaged over 5 yards per carry. Derrick Henry, who led the NFL in rushing yards in 2019, was the only other running back with 250+ carries to average 5+ yards per carry overall last season. According to Football Outsiders, Chubb had a 47% success rate outside the red zone, a lot lower than one might expect, and a truly dreadful 31% success rate inside the red zone.
Although he had more yards per carry outside the red zone than any other running back, Chubb was below average in terms of first down/touchdown % (first down or touchdown/total rushing attempts) compared to other elite running backs, further explaining his poor successful run rate. Chubb’s 1st down/td rate was 20.8%, compared to an average of 22.4% for others on the list below.
| Running Back | # of 1st Downs/TDs | # of Rushes | 1st Down/TD % |
| Ingram | 53 | 202 | 26.2% |
| Elliott | 78 | 301 | 25.9% |
| Henry | 73 | 303 | 24.1% |
| Cook | 60 | 250 | 24.0% |
| A Jones | 55 | 236 | 23.3% |
| Jacobs | 53 | 242 | 21.9% |
| Gurley | 51 | 233 | 21.9% |
| Chubb | 62 | 298 | 20.8% |
| Fournette | 55 | 265 | 20.8% |
| Barkley | 45 | 217 | 20.7% |
| Mixon | 56 | 278 | 20.1% |
| McCaffrey | 57 | 287 | 19.9% |
| Kamara | 32 | 171 | 18.7% |
Another area Chubb struggled in was on 3rd/4th down and short situations as seen in the table below.
| Player | Attempts | Yards | Yards Per Attempt | 1st Downs/TDs | % of 1Ds/TDs |
| Ingram | 4 | 10 | 2.50 | 4 | 100.0% |
| Cook | 13 | 48 | 3.69 | 11 | 84.6% |
| Henry | 12 | 63 | 5.25 | 10 | 83.3% |
| Mixon | 20 | 49 | 2.45 | 15 | 75.0% |
| Elliott | 22 | 69 | 3.14 | 16 | 72.7% |
| Gurley | 16 | 67 | 4.19 | 11 | 68.8% |
| Jacobs | 14 | 90 | 6.43 | 9 | 64.3% |
| Fournette | 24 | 67 | 2.79 | 15 | 62.5% |
| A Jones | 9 | 17 | 1.89 | 5 | 55.6% |
| McCaffrey | 12 | 38 | 3.17 | 6 | 50.0% |
| Barkley | 9 | 19 | 2.11 | 4 | 44.4% |
| Chubb | 16 | 17 | 1.06 | 7 | 43.8% |
| Kamara | 11 | 20 | 1.82 | 4 | 36.4% |
| Chubb 2018 | 10 | 15 | 1.50 | 4 | 40.0% |
With an average of 1.06 yards per attempt in these situations, Chubb finished far behind all of the other top running backs. Chubb converted on only 43.8% of these short yardage attempts while the other 12 backs on the list converted an average of 66.3% of the time. In his rookie season he converted on only 40.0% of attempts so this has been an area of weakness throughout his entire career thus far.
Chubb is certainly the definition of boom or bust as he had the most broken tackles in the league and also had the most runs of 15+ yards, which helps explain his terrific yards per carry outside the red zone. There have been seven instances of a running back averaging 3+ yards after contact the past two seasons and Chubb accounts for two of those instances. Henry is the other running back to have done it in both 2018 and 2019.
What has made Chubb so inefficient inside the red zone? Cleveland’s offensive line ranked 30th in power success at 52% in 2019 – well below the league average of 65% – and ranked in the bottom two in Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards metric when looking at runs to the outsides of the offensive line. However, Cleveland ran to the outsides only 11% of the time compared to the league average of 20%. Cleveland did find a lot of success rushing up the middle and behind the left tackle. Did this allow defenses to hyper focus on those gaps inside the 20 yard line and prevent Cleveland from having any type of sustained success running inside the red zone? As more film and data became available throughout the season, Chubb’s TD rate vastly decreased. He had 6 TDs through the first 6 games of the season but only had 2 on 184 rushes (1.1% TD rate) in the final 10 games.
The Browns will certainly be more focused on the ground game this year with the hirings of run-heavy Kevin Stefanski as head coach and Bill Callahan as the offensive line coach. Jack Conklin, one of the better run blockers in the league, was added in free agency and they used their first round pick on tackle Jedrick Wills. Those two additions will significantly bolster their line. The Browns also traded for full back Andy Janovich, a tremendous run blocker, who should allow Chubb to become even more efficient. If Chubb and the Browns can figure things out in the red zone and in short yardage situations he has top 3 running back potential.
However, there is an additional area of concern to keep an eye on when it comes to Chubb’s 2020 season. He lost nearly half his passing targets when Kareem Hunt returned to action. During Hunt’s suspension in the first 8 games of the season Chubb saw 4.0 targets per game and fell to only 2.1 per game over the 2nd half of the season once Hunt was activated. If Chubb continues to struggle in short yardage and red zone opportunities he may not be trusted in crucial running situations. A loss in passing targets combined with a lack of touches in short yardage/red zone situations could result in a true split backfield with Hunt getting the more important touches from a fantasy standpoint and Chubb becoming a fantasy bust based on his draft position.
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