Here I take a look at QBs with similar passing statistics who got to those totals in very different ways. To start with I looked at four QBs – Garropolo, Carr, Mahomes and Watson. All four QBs had very similar passing yards and passing attempts but got to their passing yards totals in two very contrasting ways. This information is presented with the understanding that Mahomes played in fewer games and also played part of the season injured.
| Quarterback | Attempts | Passing Yards | Completion % | Intended Air Yards | % IAY Comp | IAY Per Attempt | AY Per Completion | YAC per Att |
| Garropolo | 476 | 3978 | 69.1% | 3105 | 58.6% | 6.5 | 5.5 | 4.5 |
| Carr | 513 | 4054 | 70.4% | 3364 | 57.4% | 6.6 | 5.4 | 4.4 |
| Watson | 495 | 3852 | 67.3% | 4396 | 49.3% | 8.9 | 6.5 | 3.4 |
| Mahomes | 484 | 4031 | 65.9% | 4273 | 48.6% | 8.8 | 6.5 | 4.0 |
**NOTE: % IAY Comp is air yards completed/air yards attempted
Watson and Mahomes got to their totals relying on longer throws with a lower completion % vs Garropolo and Carr who relied on shorter passes with a higher completion rate and higher yards after the catch.
Are either of these styles of play more sustainable? Which style has the potential for regression in either direction? It would seem relying on guys with a high yards after catch average might be more volatile and those QBs could be more likely in line for negative regression in 2020. Deebo Samuel and George Kittle ranked 2nd and 5th respectively in yards after catch average in the NFL while Darren Waller ranked 10th and Hunter Renfrow ranked 12th. Patrick Mahomes receivers averaged 4.5 yards after catch per attempt in 2018 and it fell to 4.0 in 2019 but all his other 2018 averages were roughly the same as they were in 2019.
Mahomes 2018: 66.0% completion %, 47.3% IAY Comp, 9.1 IAY Per Attempt, 6.5 AY Per Completion
I also wanted to take a look at Aaron Rodgers whose passing yards were close to the 4 QBs above albeit on a lot more passing attempts.
| Quarterback | Attempts | Passing Yards | Completion % | Intended Air Yards | % IAY Comp | IAY Per Attempt | AY Per Completion | YAC per Att |
| Garropolo | 476 | 3978 | 69.1% | 3105 | 58.6% | 6.5 | 5.5 | 4.5 |
| Carr | 513 | 4054 | 70.4% | 3364 | 57.4% | 6.6 | 5.4 | 4.4 |
| Watson | 495 | 3852 | 67.3% | 4396 | 49.3% | 8.9 | 6.5 | 3.4 |
| Mahomes | 484 | 4031 | 65.9% | 4273 | 48.6% | 8.8 | 6.5 | 4.0 |
| Rodgers | 569 | 4002 | 62.0% | 5005 | 39.80% | 8.8 | 5.6 | 3.5 |
Rodgers had a much lower completion % than any of the 4 QBs previously discussed. He also had a lot more intended air yards than Watson and Mahomes who relied on longer passes to accrue their passing yards. The stat that stands out most is Rodgers only completed 39.8% of his intended air yards, a much lower percentage than even Watson and Mahomes. He actually ranked dead last for starting QBs in % of air yards completed. His % IAY Comp was 44.1% on 5237 intended air yards in 2018. Rodgers struggled in both air yards per completion and yards after catch per attempt. Rodgers threw 1,900 more air yards than Garropolo yet only had 24 more passing yards.
Rodgers could be in line for some positive regression if his receiving corps is enhanced or it could be his age and injury history have caught up to him for good.
And to wrap things up it is finally time to take a look at Ryan Tannehill’s 2019 season.
| Quarterback | Attempts | Passing Yards | Completion % | Intended Air Yards | % IAY Comp | IAY Per Attempt | AY Per Completion | YAC per Att |
| Garropolo | 476 | 3978 | 69.1% | 3105 | 58.6% | 6.5 | 5.5 | 4.5 |
| Carr | 513 | 4054 | 70.4% | 3364 | 57.4% | 6.6 | 5.4 | 4.4 |
| Watson | 495 | 3852 | 67.3% | 4396 | 49.3% | 8.9 | 6.5 | 3.4 |
| Mahomes | 484 | 4031 | 65.9% | 4273 | 48.6% | 8.8 | 6.5 | 4.0 |
| Tannehill | 286 | 2742 | 70.3% | 2715 | 55.0% | 9.5 | 7.4 | 4.4 |
While Tannehill only had 10 starts in 2019, his stats were incredible. If Tannehill had maintained this level of production over 16 starts he would have had 4,157 yards and would have done so much more efficiently than the others as he was on pace for 432 targets over a full season.
Tannehill maintained a high completion % while throwing for deeper passes than Garropolo and Carr. His % of intended air yards completed and yards after catch were also in line with Garropolo and Carr. However, his intended air yards per attempt and air yards per completion were much higher than even Watson and Mahomes. A truly remarkable year but it seems he could be in line for steep regression.
For starters Tannehill’s completion rate was 8 percentage points higher than expected. Second, AJ Brown (8.8) and Jonnu Smith (8.4) were 1st and 4th respectively in yards after catch average. George Kittle was 5th at 7.5 yards after catch, so nearly a yard behind the 4th place Smith. Brown and Smith placed 1 and 2 in average yards after catch above expected yards after catch. Brown was first by a wide margin at 4.9 (regression alert) compared to Smith’s 2nd place 2.9. It will be interesting to see if Tannehill can maintain these incredible averages across the board but it seems doubtful.
It was interesting to take a look at the different routes that can be taken to achieve nearly the same counting stats. As a final thought, A.J. Brown is almost certain to go too high in many drafts.
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