Wide Receivers Who Left Yards on the Field in 2019

Here I take a look at wide receivers who had at least 50 targets in 2019 and tried to determine which receivers left yards on the field. To do so I took a look at air yards on completed passes versus air yards on incomplete passes. The larger the difference the more big plays left on the field. I included receivers who had a difference of at least 10 and also included DeAndre Hopkins who was right on the cusp with a difference of 9.95.

Player	Avg AY Per Completion	Avg AY Per Incompletion	Difference	adot
Fuller	9.20	25.45	-16.25	14.2
C Samuel	8.78	22.24	-13.46	15.3
Lazard	9.89	22.94	-13.05	14.2
Lockett	9.13	21.96	-12.83	12.4
Agholor	6.08	17.93	-11.85	11.2
Hilton	6.40	17.78	-11.38	10.2
Valdes-Scantling	11.58	21.77	-10.19	17.0
Kirk	6.22	16.40	-10.18	10.0
Hopkins	7.48	17.43	-9.95	10.5

I also wanted to take a look at this data in another way, air yards per completion / air yards per incompletion. The table below shows receivers who had less than 40% of air yards per completion when compared to their air yards per incompletion. There are many of the same names as the table above but includes Steven Sims who had a very low adot compared to other wide receivers.

Player	Avg AY Per Completion	Avg AY Per Incompletion	AY Completion/AY Incompletion	adot
Agholor	6.08	17.93	33.9%	11.2
Sims	4.06	11.36	35.7%	6.9
Hilton	6.40	17.78	36.0%	10.2
Fuller	9.20	25.45	36.1%	14.2
Kirk	6.22	16.40	37.9%	10.0
Samuel	8.78	22.24	39.5%	15.3

Will Fuller/DeAndre Hopkins – Deshaun Watson seemingly left a lot of yards on the field in 2019. Will Fuller, who endured multiple injuries throughout his career, has been inconsistent throughout his career. Fuller had 3 TDs in one game in 2019 but those were his only 3 TDs on the season. Will Fuller’s presence on the field helps Hopkins thrive. Hopkins did not live up to his standard all pro season in 2019. He saw his yards per catch fall from 13.7 to 11.2 and his yards per target fall from 9.6 to 7.8. Meanwhile his air yards per reception fell from 10.30 in 2018 to 7.48 in 2019, a decrease of 27%.

Curtis Samuel – looking for redemption after having to play most of the season with Kyle Allen, who is not a capable starting QB. With better QB play and a passing game genius as offensive coordinator will Samuel show he is a big play wide receiver or will he prove to be no more than a gadget player?

Allen Lazard/Martez Valdes-Scantling – Rodgers has struggled to develop a rapport with any receiver beyond Davante Adams in recent seasons. He seemed to build a stronger connection with Lazard as the season progressed and it will be interesting to see if their connection can be enhanced heading into 2020. Rodgers has become extremely risk averse over the past 2 seasons as he was in the top 2 in throwaways in each of the past 2 seasons and led the league in lowest interception rate the past 2 seasons as well. At any rate, a lot of yards were left on the field and that could be a sign that Lazard could be a very undervalued player coming into 2020 or there is a major opportunity for any new receiver(s) Green Bay adds in the offseason.

 
Tyler Lockett – caught 82 of 110 passes (a 74.5% catch rate) which ranked 2nd to Michael Thomas (although Lockett had an adot of 12.4 compared to Thomas with 8.0) among WRs with at least 100 targets but left some bigger plays on the field. Lockett has some of the surest hands in the NFL with only 2 drops on 180 targets the past 2 seasons. Lockett saw his targets go from 70 in 2018 to 110 in 2019 and his targets could go up even more in 2020 as Russell Wilson has talked about wanting a more up tempo offense in 2020.

Nelson Agholor – the one player on this list where it seems overall talent is the reason for the numbers rather than seeing potential for positive regression next season. Agholor does not belong on an NFL field and should certainly not be seeing anywhere near 50 targets.

T.Y. Hilton – could be primed for a big bounce back season depending on the Colts QB situation as well as any lingering health issues he may be facing. Hilton has never been a big touchdown scorer which is why it is so important he is catching balls thrown down the field.

Christian Kirk – should blossom in Murray’s 2nd season. Another player who had a 3 TD game but those were his only 3 TDs on the season. He should also break away from Fitzgerald and be the true #1 WR as opposed to the 1A and 1B situation they had in 2019.

Steven Sims – flashed big play ability as he scored on a 65 yard run against the Patriots and averaged 5.1 yards after the catch. He scored 4 TDs in the final 3 games of the season. Could see a big increase in his production in Haskins 2nd season if Washington plans to use Sims heavily in their game plans. If Sims can haul in some of the longer targets he could be a great complement to McLaurin.

I wanted to take a quick look at Dallas wide receivers as they had an outstanding season in terms of these metrics and can help explain why Dak Prescott had such a great statistical season, ranking 2nd in passing yards and intended air yards while ranking 7th in passes on target. Again this only looks at wide receivers who had 50+ targets.

Player	Avg AY Per Completion	Avg AY Per Incompletion	AY Completion/AY Incompletion	adot
Cooper	11.53	13.05	88.4%	12.5
Gallup	11.73	12.81	91.6%	12.2
Cobb	9.07	13.07	69.4%	10.4
Totals	10.92	12.44	87.8%	11.83

Here is a look at Dallas compared with the other top 5 teams in terms of AY Completion/AY Incompletion.

Team	Avg AY Per Completion	Avg AY Per Incompletion	AY Completion/AY Incompletion	adot
Dallas	10.92	12.44	87.8%	11.83
Denver	9.29	12.89	72.1%	10.85
Detroit	10.74	15.76	68.1%	12.64
Miami	9.90	14.64	67.6%	11.85
Atlanta	9.73	14.43	67.4%	11.37

Dallas saw a rate of 87.8%, more than 15 percentage points ahead of 2nd place Denver. Denver was the only other team to have a rate at above even 70%. Gallup was at 91.6% while Cooper was at 88.4%. The only 2 WRs with a higher percentage were Auden Tate at 97.9%, who had an incredibly strange statistical season in which he only caught 50% of passes but was consistently inconsistent in short, medium and deep passes alike. Kenny Stills at 92.1% was the other receiver with a higher number than Gallup and Cooper.

While many of the 10 receivers on the list were not a surprise I will be particularly interested to see how Lockett, Kirk, Lazard and Sims perform in relation to 2019 as well as seeing if Hopkins can bounce back and be worthy of a 1st round pick.

Post: Michael Gallup, Tyler Lockett, AJ Brown