This article is not meant to be a slight to Justin Herzig in the least as he is certainly the best of the best when it comes to best ball (the absolute BEST) and he has the results to show for it but it takes a tremendous amount of luck over the course of a season to win tournaments like Best Ball Mania. Justin proved he knew the optimal roster construction and game theory to pursue in a challenge like this and it paid off. While luck tends to find those who work hard and have good ideas more often than it does others, it took a lot of things going exactly right to win it all.
Here is a look at Justin’s winning team:
QBs: Matt Ryan, Tom Brady, Joe Burrow
RBs: Alvin Kamara, Chris Carson, David Montgomery, Tony Pollard
WRs: Calvin Ridley, T.Y. Hilton, Tyler Boyd, John Brown, Robby Anderson, James Washington, Bryan Edwards, Kendrick Bourne, K.J. Hamler
TEs: Travis Kelce, Rob Gronkowski
Roster construction: 3 QBs / 4 RBs / 9 WRs / 2 TEs
Early Round Luck:
First, he was able to land both Alvin Kamara, the #1 RB overall, and Travis Kelce, the #1 TE overall. How many others had both Kamara and Kelce? How many even had the opportunity to draft both of them? The more times you draft and the more periods of the offseason you draft the more unique your overall portfolio will look as adps rise and fall throughout the draft season. To be in a position to get both Kamara and Kelce was certainly fortuitous.
Injuries to top players:
Then there were the injuries that happened early in the season. Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley missed most of the season while Dak Prescott got injured and Ezekiel Elliott did not look the same afterwards. This allowed Kamara to finish as the RB1 with only Derrick Henry and Dalvin Cook within striking distance. Tight end is the position where the elite players at the position give you a big edge over others. There are currently 3 elite TEs in Kelce, George Kittle and Darren Waller. Kittle missed half the season making Kelce all that more valuable as no other TE came within 110 points of him with the exception of Waller.
Injuries to teammates of players drafted:
Next there were injuries to teammates of the players Justin drafted. Julio Jones missed a decent portion of the season allowing Calvin Ridley to take on more volume and finish as the WR4 overall. Tarik Cohen was lost for the season early on allowing David Montgomery to take on more volume, particularly in the passing game, as the Bears were very thin at RB behind him. And perhaps an injury that benefited a player not many people would consider. Michael Thomas played in just 7 games and did not score a single TD on the season. This allowed Alvin Kamara to have a monstrous season in terms of TDs as he found the end zone 21 times. In fact Kamara scored 6 TDs in the Best Ball Mania championship week, as many TDs as he had in all of 2019!
Avoiding injuries to top round picks:
I have already mentioned the injuries to McCaffrey, Barkley, Prescott (which affected Elliott), Kittle, Jones and Thomas. There were also injuries to Austin Ekeler and Joe Mixon while Nick Chubb missed a 4 game stretch. If you made it through the season with the two players you selected in the first 2 rounds you ran pretty hot.
Performance of later round picks:
Justin did not have that many late round “steals.” Only Robby Anderson stood out as having major value relative to where he was selected. He did not have any of the 2020 late round steals such as James Robinson (not a part of the Underdog player pool), Justin Jefferson, Chase Claypool, Justin Herbert, Robert Tonyan or Logan Thomas. It would seem that the health of your own team combined with injuries that further enhance the value of the players you selected is more valuable than hitting on late round picks. Although late round “steals” combined with optimal roster construction and injury luck would certainly enhance your chances of winning.
Final thoughts:
Injuries and roster thinning are a huge part of best ball. Everyone is excited to draft Joe Mixon this year because it appears he will be a 3 down workhorse now that Gio Bernard has moved on to Tampa Bay. Think of drafting players who could capitalize in that way if there are injuries to their teammates and not necessarily just backup running backs like Alexander Mattison, Tony Pollard and Darrell Henderson. I am thinking of players such as Michael Gallup, if there is any injury to Amari Cooper or CeeDee Lamb or Zach Moss if there is an injury to Devin Singletary. May you have the best of luck!
Fantasy Football Analysis 