Fantasy Football Analysis

Best of Luck in Best Ball

This article is not meant to be a slight to Justin Herzig in the least as he is certainly the best of the best when it comes to best ball (the absolute BEST) and he has the results to show for it but it takes a tremendous amount of luck over the course of a season to win tournaments like Best Ball Mania. Justin proved he knew the optimal roster construction and game theory to pursue in a challenge like this and it paid off. While luck tends to find those who work hard and have good ideas more often than it does others, it took a lot of things going exactly right to win it all.

Here is a look at Justin’s winning team:

QBs: Matt Ryan, Tom Brady, Joe Burrow

RBs: Alvin Kamara, Chris Carson, David Montgomery, Tony Pollard

WRs: Calvin Ridley, T.Y. Hilton, Tyler Boyd, John Brown, Robby Anderson, James Washington, Bryan Edwards, Kendrick Bourne, K.J. Hamler

TEs: Travis Kelce, Rob Gronkowski

Roster construction: 3 QBs / 4 RBs / 9 WRs / 2 TEs

Early Round Luck:

First, he was able to land both Alvin Kamara, the #1 RB overall, and Travis Kelce, the #1 TE overall. How many others had both Kamara and Kelce? How many even had the opportunity to draft both of them? The more times you draft and the more periods of the offseason you draft the more unique your overall portfolio will look as adps rise and fall throughout the draft season. To be in a position to get both Kamara and Kelce was certainly fortuitous.

Injuries to top players:

Then there were the injuries that happened early in the season. Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley missed most of the season while Dak Prescott got injured and Ezekiel Elliott did not look the same afterwards. This allowed Kamara to finish as the RB1 with only Derrick Henry and Dalvin Cook within striking distance. Tight end is the position where the elite players at the position give you a big edge over others. There are currently 3 elite TEs in Kelce, George Kittle and Darren Waller. Kittle missed half the season making Kelce all that more valuable as no other TE came within 110 points of him with the exception of Waller.

Injuries to teammates of players drafted:

Next there were injuries to teammates of the players Justin drafted. Julio Jones missed a decent portion of the season allowing Calvin Ridley to take on more volume and finish as the WR4 overall. Tarik Cohen was lost for the season early on allowing David Montgomery to take on more volume, particularly in the passing game, as the Bears were very thin at RB behind him. And perhaps an injury that benefited a player not many people would consider. Michael Thomas played in just 7 games and did not score a single TD on the season. This allowed Alvin Kamara to have a monstrous season in terms of TDs as he found the end zone 21 times. In fact Kamara scored 6 TDs in the Best Ball Mania championship week, as many TDs as he had in all of 2019!

Avoiding injuries to top round picks:

I have already mentioned the injuries to McCaffrey, Barkley, Prescott (which affected Elliott), Kittle, Jones and Thomas. There were also injuries to Austin Ekeler and Joe Mixon while Nick Chubb missed a 4 game stretch. If you made it through the season with the two players you selected in the first 2 rounds you ran pretty hot.

Performance of later round picks:

Justin did not have that many late round “steals.” Only Robby Anderson stood out as having major value relative to where he was selected. He did not have any of the 2020 late round steals such as James Robinson (not a part of the Underdog player pool), Justin Jefferson, Chase Claypool, Justin Herbert, Robert Tonyan or Logan Thomas. It would seem that the health of your own team combined with injuries that further enhance the value of the players you selected is more valuable than hitting on late round picks. Although late round “steals” combined with optimal roster construction and injury luck would certainly enhance your chances of winning.

Final thoughts:

Injuries and roster thinning are a huge part of best ball. Everyone is excited to draft Joe Mixon this year because it appears he will be a 3 down workhorse now that Gio Bernard has moved on to Tampa Bay. Think of drafting players who could capitalize in that way if there are injuries to their teammates and not necessarily just backup running backs like Alexander Mattison, Tony Pollard and Darrell Henderson. I am thinking of players such as Michael Gallup, if there is any injury to Amari Cooper or CeeDee Lamb or Zach Moss if there is an injury to Devin Singletary. May you have the best of luck!

Wide Receivers Who Left Yards on the Field in 2019

Here I take a look at wide receivers who had at least 50 targets in 2019 and tried to determine which receivers left yards on the field. To do so I took a look at air yards on completed passes versus air yards on incomplete passes. The larger the difference the more big plays left on the field. I included receivers who had a difference of at least 10 and also included DeAndre Hopkins who was right on the cusp with a difference of 9.95.

Player	Avg AY Per Completion	Avg AY Per Incompletion	Difference	adot
Fuller	9.20	25.45	-16.25	14.2
C Samuel	8.78	22.24	-13.46	15.3
Lazard	9.89	22.94	-13.05	14.2
Lockett	9.13	21.96	-12.83	12.4
Agholor	6.08	17.93	-11.85	11.2
Hilton	6.40	17.78	-11.38	10.2
Valdes-Scantling	11.58	21.77	-10.19	17.0
Kirk	6.22	16.40	-10.18	10.0
Hopkins	7.48	17.43	-9.95	10.5

I also wanted to take a look at this data in another way, air yards per completion / air yards per incompletion. The table below shows receivers who had less than 40% of air yards per completion when compared to their air yards per incompletion. There are many of the same names as the table above but includes Steven Sims who had a very low adot compared to other wide receivers.

Player	Avg AY Per Completion	Avg AY Per Incompletion	AY Completion/AY Incompletion	adot
Agholor	6.08	17.93	33.9%	11.2
Sims	4.06	11.36	35.7%	6.9
Hilton	6.40	17.78	36.0%	10.2
Fuller	9.20	25.45	36.1%	14.2
Kirk	6.22	16.40	37.9%	10.0
Samuel	8.78	22.24	39.5%	15.3

Will Fuller/DeAndre Hopkins – Deshaun Watson seemingly left a lot of yards on the field in 2019. Will Fuller, who endured multiple injuries throughout his career, has been inconsistent throughout his career. Fuller had 3 TDs in one game in 2019 but those were his only 3 TDs on the season. Will Fuller’s presence on the field helps Hopkins thrive. Hopkins did not live up to his standard all pro season in 2019. He saw his yards per catch fall from 13.7 to 11.2 and his yards per target fall from 9.6 to 7.8. Meanwhile his air yards per reception fell from 10.30 in 2018 to 7.48 in 2019, a decrease of 27%.

Curtis Samuel – looking for redemption after having to play most of the season with Kyle Allen, who is not a capable starting QB. With better QB play and a passing game genius as offensive coordinator will Samuel show he is a big play wide receiver or will he prove to be no more than a gadget player?

Allen Lazard/Martez Valdes-Scantling – Rodgers has struggled to develop a rapport with any receiver beyond Davante Adams in recent seasons. He seemed to build a stronger connection with Lazard as the season progressed and it will be interesting to see if their connection can be enhanced heading into 2020. Rodgers has become extremely risk averse over the past 2 seasons as he was in the top 2 in throwaways in each of the past 2 seasons and led the league in lowest interception rate the past 2 seasons as well. At any rate, a lot of yards were left on the field and that could be a sign that Lazard could be a very undervalued player coming into 2020 or there is a major opportunity for any new receiver(s) Green Bay adds in the offseason.

Tyler Lockett – caught 82 of 110 passes (a 74.5% catch rate) which ranked 2nd to Michael Thomas (although Lockett had an adot of 12.4 compared to Thomas with 8.0) among WRs with at least 100 targets but left some bigger plays on the field. Lockett has some of the surest hands in the NFL with only 2 drops on 180 targets the past 2 seasons. Lockett saw his targets go from 70 in 2018 to 110 in 2019 and his targets could go up even more in 2020 as Russell Wilson has talked about wanting a more up tempo offense in 2020.

Nelson Agholor – the one player on this list where it seems overall talent is the reason for the numbers rather than seeing potential for positive regression next season. Agholor does not belong on an NFL field and should certainly not be seeing anywhere near 50 targets.

T.Y. Hilton – could be primed for a big bounce back season depending on the Colts QB situation as well as any lingering health issues he may be facing. Hilton has never been a big touchdown scorer which is why it is so important he is catching balls thrown down the field.

Christian Kirk – should blossom in Murray’s 2nd season. Another player who had a 3 TD game but those were his only 3 TDs on the season. He should also break away from Fitzgerald and be the true #1 WR as opposed to the 1A and 1B situation they had in 2019.

Steven Sims – flashed big play ability as he scored on a 65 yard run against the Patriots and averaged 5.1 yards after the catch. He scored 4 TDs in the final 3 games of the season. Could see a big increase in his production in Haskins 2nd season if Washington plans to use Sims heavily in their game plans. If Sims can haul in some of the longer targets he could be a great complement to McLaurin.

I wanted to take a quick look at Dallas wide receivers as they had an outstanding season in terms of these metrics and can help explain why Dak Prescott had such a great statistical season, ranking 2nd in passing yards and intended air yards while ranking 7th in passes on target. Again this only looks at wide receivers who had 50+ targets.

Player	Avg AY Per Completion	Avg AY Per Incompletion	AY Completion/AY Incompletion	adot
Cooper	11.53	13.05	88.4%	12.5
Gallup	11.73	12.81	91.6%	12.2
Cobb	9.07	13.07	69.4%	10.4
Totals	10.92	12.44	87.8%	11.83

Here is a look at Dallas compared with the other top 5 teams in terms of AY Completion/AY Incompletion.

Team	Avg AY Per Completion	Avg AY Per Incompletion	AY Completion/AY Incompletion	adot
Dallas	10.92	12.44	87.8%	11.83
Denver	9.29	12.89	72.1%	10.85
Detroit	10.74	15.76	68.1%	12.64
Miami	9.90	14.64	67.6%	11.85
Atlanta	9.73	14.43	67.4%	11.37

Dallas saw a rate of 87.8%, more than 15 percentage points ahead of 2nd place Denver. Denver was the only other team to have a rate at above even 70%. Gallup was at 91.6% while Cooper was at 88.4%. The only 2 WRs with a higher percentage were Auden Tate at 97.9%, who had an incredibly strange statistical season in which he only caught 50% of passes but was consistently inconsistent in short, medium and deep passes alike. Kenny Stills at 92.1% was the other receiver with a higher number than Gallup and Cooper.

While many of the 10 receivers on the list were not a surprise I will be particularly interested to see how Lockett, Kirk, Lazard and Sims perform in relation to 2019 as well as seeing if Hopkins can bounce back and be worthy of a 1st round pick.

Post: Michael Gallup, Tyler Lockett, AJ Brown

Michael Gallup vs AJ Brown and Tyler Lockett

Michael Gallup is very underrated coming into 2020. Gallup is the only player to have at least 10 air yards per reception and 5 yards after catch per reception in each of the past 2 seasons. In looking at wide receivers who had at least 1300+ air yards and an adot of at least 12 (13 receivers in total qualify) in 2019, Gallup (14 games in 2019) had the 3rd greatest % of air yards caught at 56.3%. His teammate Amari Cooper was 1st at 61.3% leading to a truly strong season by Dak Prescott.

Player	Air Yards Caught	Air Yards Attempted	% Air Yards Caught
A Cooper	911	1485	61.3%
S Diggs	828	1424	58.1%
M Gallup	774	1326	56.3%
T Lockett	749	1364	54.9%
Ju Jones	1030	1913	53.8%
D Parker	939	1798	52.2%
K Golladay	886	1756	50.5%
Jo Brown	850	1688	50.4%
M Williams	814	1626	50.1%
M Evans	901	1809	49.8%
R Anderson	586	1402	41.8%
O Beckham	709	1801	39.4%
C Samuel	474	1608	29.5%

Here are some other stats to consider in making the determination that Gallup can make an even bigger leap in 2020. Gallup only had 8 red zone targets in 2019. Witten (10), Cooper (9) and Cobb (8) each had as many or more red zone targets than Gallup as Prescott spreads the ball around in the red zone. Gallup had the 3rd lowest percentage in terms of red zone targets out of overall targets (7.1%). Three of Gallup’s 6 TDs came in the final game of the season, Gallup also had 11 dropped passes and had the 3rd highest drop rate among WRs.

On the other hand, AJ Brown is certainly in line for some regression. Brown had 8.9 yards after catch per reception. This was nearly 5 more yards per reception than expected. In looking at receivers with 1,000+ receiving yards and an adot of at least 13, Brown had more yards after catch per target than any of the other 7 receivers in the group had yards after catch per reception.

Player	Caught Air Yards Per Reception	Caught Air Yards Per Target	YAC Per Reception	YAC Per Target
D Parker	13.04	7.34	3.65	2.05
K Golladay	13.63	7.64	4.68	2.62
M Evans	13.45	7.64	3.82	2.17
S Diggs	13.14	8.81	4.79	3.21
J Brown	11.81	7.39	2.92	1.83
AJ Brown	11.27	6.98	8.94	5.54
O Beckham	9.58	5.33	4.41	2.45
M Williams	16.61	9.04	3.82	2.08

If Brown gets 24 more receptions next season than he had in 2019 (1.5 more per game and a 46% increase from 2019) and maintains the same air yards per reception but his yards after catch falls to 5.0 (still very high as I mentioned Gallup is the only receiver in the NFL with a 10+ air yards and 5+ yards after catch in each of the past 2 seasons), he would have 1,239 receiving yards – 188 more than he had in 2016. While the volume will certainly increase in 2020, I don’t think his production level will match his projected draft position.

I would not feel terrible going running back heavy early in the draft while also getting an elite QB and TE and having Gallup as my #1 WR, particularly if Cooper leaves Dallas and he can improve his drop rate as well as get more looks in the red zone.

There is also an interesting contrast between Michael Gallup and Tyler Lockett. Each had similar targets, receiving yards and air yards but got their receiving yards in very different ways.

Player	Targets	Air Yards	adot	Avg Yards Per Target	Yards	Receptions	Air Yards Per Completion	Air Yards Per Incompletion	YAC Per Reception
Gallup	113	1376	12.18	9.80	1,107	66	11.73	12.81	5.05
Lockett	110	1364	12.40	9.61	1,057	82	9.13	21.96	3.76

From the table you can see their stats are nearly identical until you get to receptions. Lockett caught 16 more passes, on 3 less targets, and had a 74.5% catch rate compared to Gallup’s 58.4% rate. However, Gallup had 2.6 more air yards per completion while Lockett had 9.2 more air yards per incompletion. While Lockett had a great catch rate he left yards on the field by missing out on many of the deeper passes thrown his way. Gallup missed out on receiving yards by having 11 drops, one of the league leaders in that department, while Lockett has 2 dropped passes combined over the past 2 years.

Although Lockett caught more shorter passes it was Gallup who had 5.05 yards after catch per reception compared to Lockett’s 3.76. The longer catches and yards after catch allowed Gallup to have 50 more receiving yards on 16 less receptions even though Gallup and Lockett had nearly identical targets and air yards. Another thing to note is Lockett led the NFL in red zone targets among wide receivers with 23 while Gallup finished with just 8. It is also worth noting that Russell Wilson has talked about wanting a more uptempo offense in 2020 and that could lead to more targets for Lockett.

Both Gallup and Lockett have statistics that show they could be very undervalued heading in 2020.

Post: 10 WRs Who Left Yards on the Field in 2019

Ryan Tannehill – The Best of Both Worlds

Here I take a look at QBs with similar passing statistics who got to those totals in very different ways. To start with I looked at four QBs – Garropolo, Carr, Mahomes and Watson. All four QBs had very similar passing yards and passing attempts but got to their passing yards totals in two very contrasting ways. This information is presented with the understanding that Mahomes played in fewer games and also played part of the season injured.

Quarterback	Attempts	Passing Yards	Completion %	Intended Air Yards	% IAY Comp	IAY Per Attempt	AY Per Completion	YAC per Att
Garropolo	476	3978	69.1%	3105	58.6%	6.5	5.5	4.5
Carr	513	4054	70.4%	3364	57.4%	6.6	5.4	4.4
Watson	495	3852	67.3%	4396	49.3%	8.9	6.5	3.4
Mahomes	484	4031	65.9%	4273	48.6%	8.8	6.5	4.0

**NOTE: % IAY Comp is air yards completed/air yards attempted

Watson and Mahomes got to their totals relying on longer throws with a lower completion % vs Garropolo and Carr who relied on shorter passes with a higher completion rate and higher yards after the catch.

Are either of these styles of play more sustainable? Which style has the potential for regression in either direction? It would seem relying on guys with a high yards after catch average might be more volatile and those QBs could be more likely in line for negative regression in 2020. Deebo Samuel and George Kittle ranked 2nd and 5th respectively in yards after catch average in the NFL while Darren Waller ranked 10th and Hunter Renfrow ranked 12th. Patrick Mahomes receivers averaged 4.5 yards after catch per attempt in 2018 and it fell to 4.0 in 2019 but all his other 2018 averages were roughly the same as they were in 2019.

Mahomes 2018: 66.0% completion %, 47.3% IAY Comp, 9.1 IAY Per Attempt, 6.5 AY Per Completion

I also wanted to take a look at Aaron Rodgers whose passing yards were close to the 4 QBs above albeit on a lot more passing attempts.

Quarterback	Attempts	Passing Yards	Completion %	Intended Air Yards	% IAY Comp	IAY Per Attempt	AY Per Completion	YAC per Att
Garropolo	476	3978	69.1%	3105	58.6%	6.5	5.5	4.5
Carr	513	4054	70.4%	3364	57.4%	6.6	5.4	4.4
Watson	495	3852	67.3%	4396	49.3%	8.9	6.5	3.4
Mahomes	484	4031	65.9%	4273	48.6%	8.8	6.5	4.0

Rodgers	569	4002	62.0%	5005	39.80%	8.8	5.6	3.5

Rodgers had a much lower completion % than any of the 4 QBs previously discussed. He also had a lot more intended air yards than Watson and Mahomes who relied on longer passes to accrue their passing yards. The stat that stands out most is Rodgers only completed 39.8% of his intended air yards, a much lower percentage than even Watson and Mahomes. He actually ranked dead last for starting QBs in % of air yards completed. His % IAY Comp was 44.1% on 5237 intended air yards in 2018. Rodgers struggled in both air yards per completion and yards after catch per attempt. Rodgers threw 1,900 more air yards than Garropolo yet only had 24 more passing yards.

Rodgers could be in line for some positive regression if his receiving corps is enhanced or it could be his age and injury history have caught up to him for good.
And to wrap things up it is finally time to take a look at Ryan Tannehill’s 2019 season.

Quarterback	Attempts	Passing Yards	Completion %	Intended Air Yards	% IAY Comp	IAY Per Attempt	AY Per Completion	YAC per Att
Garropolo	476	3978	69.1%	3105	58.6%	6.5	5.5	4.5
Carr	513	4054	70.4%	3364	57.4%	6.6	5.4	4.4
Watson	495	3852	67.3%	4396	49.3%	8.9	6.5	3.4
Mahomes	484	4031	65.9%	4273	48.6%	8.8	6.5	4.0

Tannehill	286	2742	70.3%	2715	55.0%	9.5	7.4	4.4

While Tannehill only had 10 starts in 2019, his stats were incredible. If Tannehill had maintained this level of production over 16 starts he would have had 4,157 yards and would have done so much more efficiently than the others as he was on pace for 432 targets over a full season.
Tannehill maintained a high completion % while throwing for deeper passes than Garropolo and Carr. His % of intended air yards completed and yards after catch were also in line with Garropolo and Carr. However, his intended air yards per attempt and air yards per completion were much higher than even Watson and Mahomes. A truly remarkable year but it seems he could be in line for steep regression.

For starters Tannehill’s completion rate was 8 percentage points higher than expected. Second, AJ Brown (8.8) and Jonnu Smith (8.4) were 1st and 4th respectively in yards after catch average. George Kittle was 5th at 7.5 yards after catch, so nearly a yard behind the 4th place Smith. Brown and Smith placed 1 and 2 in average yards after catch above expected yards after catch. Brown was first by a wide margin at 4.9 (regression alert) compared to Smith’s 2nd place 2.9. It will be interesting to see if Tannehill can maintain these incredible averages across the board but it seems doubtful.

It was interesting to take a look at the different routes that can be taken to achieve nearly the same counting stats. As a final thought, A.J. Brown is almost certain to go too high in many drafts.

Post: The Demise of Aaron Rodgers

Nick Chubb – Red Zone is His Dead Zone

What makes Nick Chubb so explosive outside the red zone and so inefficient inside it?

Here is a look at yards per carry, both outside the red zone and inside the red zone, for some of the top tier running backs, including Chubb, in 2019.

*Multiplier is the number of yards a player averages per carry outside the red zone for every one yard inside the red zone.

Running Back	YPC outside RZ	YPC in RZ	Multiplier
Fournette	4.93	1.35	3.65
Chubb	5.69	1.64	3.47
CMC	5.34	2.65	2.02
Barkley	4.92	2.64	1.86
Cook	4.93	2.65	1.86
Mixon	4.38	2.38	1.84
Elliott	4.94	2.75	1.80
Ingram	5.48	3.25	1.69
Jacobs	5.07	3.20	1.58
Henry	5.35	3.43	1.56
Gurley	4.17	2.73	1.53
A Jones	4.77	3.52	1.36
Kamara	4.85	3.62	1.34
Chubb 2018	5.66	2.19	2.58

Chubb has averaged nearly 5.7 ypc outside the red zone in each of the past 2 seasons, a higher rate than any other top running back but has failed to reach anywhere near the level of elite runners inside the red zone. He was particularly poor in goal-to-go situations in 2019 where he had 10 yards on 28 rushes.

Chubb also had a very low TD % Rate in the red zone (RZ TDs/RZ Rushes) in 2019 compared to other top running backs.

Running Back	RZ TD Rate
A Jones	42.4%
Henry	31.0%
Cook	27.9%
Ingram	25.0%
Gurley	23.5%
CMC	20.4%
Elliott	18.6%
Jacobs	17.1%
Kamara	15.4%
Mixon	12.5%
Chubb	12.0%
Barkley	10.7%
Fournette	7.0%

Aside from inefficiencies in yards per carry and touchdown rate in the red zone, Chubb’s overall successful run rate (45%) ranked 37th in the NFL, startling for someone who averaged over 5 yards per carry. Derrick Henry, who led the NFL in rushing yards in 2019, was the only other running back with 250+ carries to average 5+ yards per carry overall last season. According to Football Outsiders, Chubb had a 47% success rate outside the red zone, a lot lower than one might expect, and a truly dreadful 31% success rate inside the red zone.

Although he had more yards per carry outside the red zone than any other running back, Chubb was below average in terms of first down/touchdown % (first down or touchdown/total rushing attempts) compared to other elite running backs, further explaining his poor successful run rate. Chubb’s 1st down/td rate was 20.8%, compared to an average of 22.4% for others on the list below.

Running Back	# of 1st Downs/TDs	# of Rushes	1st Down/TD %
Ingram	53	202	26.2%
Elliott	78	301	25.9%
Henry	73	303	24.1%
Cook	60	250	24.0%
A Jones	55	236	23.3%
Jacobs	53	242	21.9%
Gurley	51	233	21.9%
Chubb	62	298	20.8%
Fournette	55	265	20.8%
Barkley	45	217	20.7%
Mixon	56	278	20.1%
McCaffrey	57	287	19.9%
Kamara	32	171	18.7%

Another area Chubb struggled in was on 3rd/4th down and short situations as seen in the table below.

Player	Attempts	Yards	Yards Per Attempt	1st Downs/TDs	% of 1Ds/TDs
Ingram	4	10	2.50	4	100.0%
Cook	13	48	3.69	11	84.6%
Henry	12	63	5.25	10	83.3%
Mixon	20	49	2.45	15	75.0%
Elliott	22	69	3.14	16	72.7%
Gurley	16	67	4.19	11	68.8%
Jacobs	14	90	6.43	9	64.3%
Fournette	24	67	2.79	15	62.5%
A Jones	9	17	1.89	5	55.6%
McCaffrey	12	38	3.17	6	50.0%
Barkley	9	19	2.11	4	44.4%
Chubb	16	17	1.06	7	43.8%
Kamara	11	20	1.82	4	36.4%
Chubb 2018	10	15	1.50	4	40.0%

With an average of 1.06 yards per attempt in these situations, Chubb finished far behind all of the other top running backs. Chubb converted on only 43.8% of these short yardage attempts while the other 12 backs on the list converted an average of 66.3% of the time. In his rookie season he converted on only 40.0% of attempts so this has been an area of weakness throughout his entire career thus far.

Chubb is certainly the definition of boom or bust as he had the most broken tackles in the league and also had the most runs of 15+ yards, which helps explain his terrific yards per carry outside the red zone. There have been seven instances of a running back averaging 3+ yards after contact the past two seasons and Chubb accounts for two of those instances. Henry is the other running back to have done it in both 2018 and 2019.

What has made Chubb so inefficient inside the red zone? Cleveland’s offensive line ranked 30th in power success at 52% in 2019 – well below the league average of 65% – and ranked in the bottom two in Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards metric when looking at runs to the outsides of the offensive line. However, Cleveland ran to the outsides only 11% of the time compared to the league average of 20%. Cleveland did find a lot of success rushing up the middle and behind the left tackle. Did this allow defenses to hyper focus on those gaps inside the 20 yard line and prevent Cleveland from having any type of sustained success running inside the red zone? As more film and data became available throughout the season, Chubb’s TD rate vastly decreased. He had 6 TDs through the first 6 games of the season but only had 2 on 184 rushes (1.1% TD rate) in the final 10 games.

The Browns will certainly be more focused on the ground game this year with the hirings of run-heavy Kevin Stefanski as head coach and Bill Callahan as the offensive line coach. Jack Conklin, one of the better run blockers in the league, was added in free agency and they used their first round pick on tackle Jedrick Wills. Those two additions will significantly bolster their line. The Browns also traded for full back Andy Janovich, a tremendous run blocker, who should allow Chubb to become even more efficient. If Chubb and the Browns can figure things out in the red zone and in short yardage situations he has top 3 running back potential.

However, there is an additional area of concern to keep an eye on when it comes to Chubb’s 2020 season. He lost nearly half his passing targets when Kareem Hunt returned to action. During Hunt’s suspension in the first 8 games of the season Chubb saw 4.0 targets per game and fell to only 2.1 per game over the 2nd half of the season once Hunt was activated. If Chubb continues to struggle in short yardage and red zone opportunities he may not be trusted in crucial running situations. A loss in passing targets combined with a lack of touches in short yardage/red zone situations could result in a true split backfield with Hunt getting the more important touches from a fantasy standpoint and Chubb becoming a fantasy bust based on his draft position.

Post: 10 Wide Receivers Who Left Yards on the Field in 2019